AP/Ipsos Poll: Americans Evenly Divided On War In Iraq

Washington, D.C. -- The capture of Saddam Hussein was far from the end of the conflict in Iraq, so indicates the latest poll for the Associated Press conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Last December, right after the capture of Saddam Hussein, by a two-to-one margin Americans said going to war in Iraq was the right thing to do. By April, support was more muted, and opinion now narrowly leans toward saying going to war was a mistake. This question was asked two ways. Half of respondents were asked about whether "the United States" made the right decision or made a mistake, and the other half were asked about the Bush administration. In December, the Bush Administration may have gotten a little extra credit (67%; vs. 64% for the United States). By April and again in August, the Bush administration receives somewhat more criticism than the country as a whole for the decision. The view that the Bush administration made a mistake in Iraq is especially pronounced among:

• Registered voters who are Kerry-Edwards supporters (90%)
• Registered voters who are Democrats (84%; 88% Democratic men)
• Non-whites (80%)
• People under 30 (65%)
• Renters (71%) and people with low household income (60%) and no investments (61%)
• Unmarried men (62%) and women (63%)
• Residents of the Pacific region (62%)
• As well as those saying country is on the wrong track (78%)

Between December and now, the most dramatic increase in the opinion that going to war in Iraq was a mistake is found among members of minority groups (+40 points). Sizeable increases in saying it was a mistake are also apparent among:

• People in their twenties and thirties (+29 points)
• People in low-income households (+31)
• Democrats (+30)
• Men (+29), including unmarried (+25) and Democratic (+32) men
• Residents of the Pacific (+28) and Northeastern (+28) U.S.
• Catholics (+28, vs. +15 among Protestants)

The strongest factor driving the view that the Bush administration made the right decision in Iraq is partisanship. Nine in ten of registered voters who are Republicans (86%; 91% Republican men) and those who are Bush-Cheney supporters (89%) say it was the right decision - but so does 64% of Independents (the same as in December 2003). Support for the administration's decision to go to war is relatively stronger - but not overwhelmingly so - among:

• People in their forties (55%) and fifties (51%)
• Whites (53%)
• People in the Oil Patch (56%) and Great Lakes (52%) regions
• Those in higher income brackets (55% of those with annual household income over $75,000) and investors (52%)
• Married men (52%) and women (53%)

The Associated Press Poll is conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Between August 3-5, 2004, the AP/Ipsos poll interviewed a representative sample of 1,001 adults nationwide, including 798 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 for all adults, +/- 3.5 for registered voters. Margin of error for subgroups may be higher. To view the complete filled-in questionnaire for this survey, please download the Topline Results. For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300 About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Ramon (CA), and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos-na.com/news/pa About Ipsos Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and reactions of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world. Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting and modeling and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2003, Ipsos generated global revenues of $644.2 million U.S. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos.com Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris Premier Marchй, and is part of the SBF 120 and Next Prime Indices as well as eligible to the Deferred Settlement System (SRD). Euroclear code 7329, Reuters ISOS.LN, Bloomberg IPS FP