Did the Presidential debate change anybody's mind?

Perhaps the biggest question coming out of last night’s Presidential debate was whether the media frenzy following President Joe Biden’s stumbling debate performance might lead him to drop out of the race. For former President Donald Trump, the performance was about as expected.

Age has long been a concern in Biden’s 2024 Oval Office run. But following a debate filled with verbal gaffes and odd facial expressions, spin rooms, media outlets, and columnists rushed to criticize Biden’s performance as symptoms of his historically advanced age.

In the time since, the Biden campaign hasn't made any indication that Biden will drop out of the race, but whether he will end up doing so remains an open question.

What about the voters? How do Americans actually feel about what transpired last night? Below are five charts on how likely voters felt about the debates and where things might go from here.

1. Biden fell short. Entering the debate, few likely voters felt Biden would have a good showing. After a night filled with verbal miscues, he did little to impress potential voters. Trump, on the other hand, performed about as well as his pre-debate expectations.
2. Biden may have lost, but Trump didn’t win. A clear majority of debate watchers felt Trump outperformed Biden last night. Even so, Trump, who spent the night dodging questions and repeating falsehoods, didn’t exactly win over the rest of America.
3. Age concerns abound. Concerns about age have long circled Biden’s camp. Yesterday’s debate didn’t do much to quell those concerns. Before the debate, most Americans didn’t feel that Biden had the mental fitness to be president. The debate only exacerbated these concerns – particularly among Biden’s own pool of support.
4. Biden’s replacement? If Democrats did decide to replace Biden (a possibility that seems less likely now compared to last night), who could they go with? Many of the names being floated around – like California’s Gavin Newsom and Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer – are less popular and seen less favorably than Biden. Even though Michelle Obama rates favorably and is well-known, that may be because she’s more public figure than politician. Poor performance aside, does Biden still give Democrats the best chance?
5. Won’t change much? The debate may have been a publicity nightmare for the Biden campaign, but it may not be a death sentence. Things have shifted slightly in favor of Trump after the Debate, but a sizable number of likely voters still say they would consider voting for Biden. In today’s political era, the anti-vote is a strong force.

Do political debates actually change people’s minds? Typically, not really. In the Republican primary debates last year, for example, attitudes toward the Republican candidate field hardly nudged.

That said, a disastrous performance can still sink a candidate. To some commentators, Biden’s performance w last night was as disastrous as it gets. But, perhaps to Biden’s benefit, the majority of Americans already saw Biden as too old to hold office yet were still willing to support his campaign.

Yes, Biden fell short of his already-low expectations on the debate stage last night. But the theme of this election has always been the anti-vote. Will Democrats stick with Biden? We will see.