Ipsos-Reid CASH Index: Key Economic Indicators Tied to Voting Behavior in November Elections

WASHINGTON, D.C. - The Ipsos-Reid CASH Index--an index of Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household--stands at 79.9 in the most recent polling, marking a downward move of 20.1 points drop from the beginning of summer when the index was at 100.0. Moreover, the Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Poll findings show that weakened consumer attitudes on specific economic indicators over the summer months is damaging for the Republicans.

These surveys were conducted by Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs, the Washington, D.C.-based division of Ipsos, which is the world's fourth largest polling and market research organization, based in Paris. Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective public affairs research organization made up of Democratic and Republican campaign and political polling veterans. The Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report poll and the Ipsos-Reid Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household (CASH) Index poll are conducted the first and third week of every month, as part of Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs weekly omnibus polling service. The margin of error for the questions on each rolling average of two consecutive surveys totaling 2000 adults, eighteen and older, is 177 2.2%, nineteen times out of twenty.

The following provides the highlights of the current late August/early September Index:

• The Ipsos CASH Index (Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household) fell from 100.0 in early May-mid May to 79.9 in late August-early September.
• During that same period, attitudes about the direction of the country overall fell from 54% right direction-40% wrong track at the beginning of the summer to 44% right direction and 50% wrong direction at the beginning of the fall.

• That 20-percentage point decline in right direction-wrong track attitudes exceeds the decline seen on all but one of the ten components of the Ipsos CASH Index. Only consumer confidence in the ability to invest in the future fell more sharply over the summer, dropping 22 points, from 46%-38% at the beginning of the summer to 36%-50% at the beginning of the fall after a summer of bad news on Wall Street.

The Key Economic Indicators and People's Votes

• The Ipsos-Reid CASH Index has fallen because of specific key economic indicators related to the individual's ability to invest (-22), concerns about the future of the economy (-12), doubts about large (-9) and small (-13) household expenditures, expected job loss (-12) and current job security (-9).
• The political impact of declining consumer attitudes hurts the Republicans. The declining CASH index explains why the Democrats have been able to take the lead on the congressional vote numbers. In fact, as economic concern increases on the factors listed above, support for a Democrat controlled congress also steadily increases.
• Ipsos CASH Index components that have NOT had a significant impact on predicting voting behavior over the summer include the broad measures of how the local economy is doing now and how that impacts personal finances, none of which have dropped as much as the key economic indicators listed above. There has been less decline on current local economic conditions (-5), personal financial status (current, not at -9 and expectations for the future, now at -3), and experience with recent job loss (-4).
• Likelihood of supporting the Bush government also declined in concert with the key economic indicators (listed above) over the summer. However, President Bush's numbers are more likely to be positively influenced in upcoming polling as Americans rally around the President in the face of a war with Iraq.

For more information on this release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs 202.463.7300 [email protected]