Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report: Democrats Stem Republican Tide

Congressional Party Control Preference, Trending Republican Since August, Stabilizes As Democrats Try to Recapture Traditional Mid-Term Elections Advantage of Party Out of Power in the White House

Between and October 15 and 17, and October 25 and 27, 2002, Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs interviewed a representative sample of 2,000 adults nationwide, including 1,523 registered voters and 969 likely voters. The margin of error for the combined surveys is +/- 2.2% for all adults, +/- 2.6% for registered voters and +/- 3.2% for likely voters.

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Democrats, who had built a small but statistically significant lead among likely voters in August, and then saw it disappear, are dead-even with Republicans in the most recent Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll.

And if the election for Congress were held today, would you want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of Congress?

  • In the most recent survey, for the interviews conducted over the weekend, October 25-27, Democrats enjoy a 46%-40% lead among registered voters and a statistically insignificant 45%-43% lead among likely voters.
  • By comparison, for the interviews conducted October 15-17, the parties were tied, 44%-44% among registered voters and Republicans led 47%-43% among likely voters--the largest Republican lead among likely voters at any time this fall.
  • Democrats had originally claimed a small lead among likely voters in August, but in every poll since then, they scored a little worse among likely voters than in the poll before — until this past weekend. In the results this past weekend, Democrats reclaimed a lot of that lost ground, moving into a nominal (but not a statistically significant) lead.
  • If the new trend identified this past weekend holds up through interviews conducted by Ipsos-Reid on Tuesday through Thursday this week, Democrats may find themselves with the minimum kind of lead among likely voters that the party out of power in the White House traditionally enjoys in a midterm election. That may not be enough to give Democrats control of the House of Representatives after Election Day, but it may be the best that Democrats can hope for.

Editors Note: Stay Tuned

Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll results will be released November 1, based on polls conducted Oct 25-27 and Oct 29-31, and on November 4, based on polls conducted Oct 29-31 and Nov 1-3.

    For more information on this release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs 202.463.7300

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