Will the Harris-Trump debate move the needle?

The first Presidential debate in June was about as impactful as debates can get, after President Joe Biden’s disastrous performance catalyzed a change in candidate for Democrats.

Tuesday’s debate likely won’t end up being as impactful, but from Donald Trump’s spars with the debate moderators to Kamala Harris’ smirks and scoffs, it certainly was eventful.

Aside from June’s debacle, Presidential debates typically aren’t needle-movers. Will this debate have any impact?

Below are five charts on who watched the debate, how Americans felt about Harris and Trump following the debate, and how, if at all, the debate will affect the race to the White House. 

1. Who watched the debate? Tuesday’s debate saw higher viewership than the Biden-Trump debate, though a notch below the historic viewership in 2016 and 2020. And while most Americans heard at least something about the debate, demographics that typically have lower turnout, like younger and less educated Americans, were among the least tuned into the debate.
2. Did Harris win the debate? Among Americans who heard at least something about the debate, Harris performed better on every positive description, while Trump was seen to have stumbled and didn’t appear sharp.
3. Economy still favors Trump. Throughout the debate, Harris attempted to bolster her chops on the economy, including by introducing her “opportunity economy.” But Americans still feel like Trump would focus more on creating a good environment for businesses and reducing everyday costs than Harris. The economy remains to be a significant issue among voters and remains a strength for the Trump campaign.
4. Harris ahead of Trump post-debate. Harris has been gaining in the polls ever since Biden dropped out of the election. After the debate, Harris seems to have a slight edge over Trump. The momentum advantage remains in Harris’ court.
5. True independents shift toward Harris. Independents that lean toward either Republicans or Democrats saw little change in their voting plans after the debate. However, independents that don’t lean either way swung toward Harris, likely contributing to her improved topline polling numbers. That said, many of these independents are undecided or don’t plan to vote. Can Harris hold onto these independents heading into November?

The roles have reversed from the first debate. While the first debate was a nail in the coffin for Biden, the second debate is seemingly giving Harris a slight boost, particularly among independents. So much so, that it doesn’t seem likely that Trump will agree to another.

That said, the underlying fundamentals haven’t changed: Harris is seen more favorably as a person and has the momentum advantage, while Trump is seen as better for the economy. Which force will win out? We will see.