Latino Americans aren’t favorable to Trump or Biden, but feel the Democratic Party better represents them

Washington, DC, April 9, 2024 – Heading into the 2024 presidential election, Latino Americans view both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump unfavorably, according to the findings of a new Axios/Ipsos poll conducted in partnership with Noticias Telemundo of over 1,000 Latino/Hispanic Americans. The poll also finds that Latinos tend to prefer Trump when it comes to the economy, crime, and immigration, but prefer Biden when it comes to abortion issues.

Aside from political preferences, the poll also finds that younger Latinos are less likely to feel that they can live the “American Dream” and feel less optimistic about the future of the United States.

Detailed Findings

1. Latinos in general have somewhat low favorability ratings of major political figures, including President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
   • A plurality of Latinos hold an unfavorable view of Biden (41% favorable, 47% unfavorable), while Trump is seen even less favorably (32% favorable, 56% unfavorable). Vice President Kamala Harris is seen roughly equally favorably (39%) as she is unfavorably (38%).
   • Just over half of Latinos say inflation (53%) is the issue they find most worrying. Crime and gun violence (34%) and immigration (28%) fall as second-tier concerns. Less than one in five say political extremism or polarization (16%) is a top concern.
2. Latinos are somewhat mixed between Republicans and Democrats when it comes to issues like the economy and immigration. However, they are less likely to see Biden as a champion on key issues than the Democratic Party itself.
   • Latinos are far more likely to say that the Democratic Party represents people like them (36%), cares about Latino and Hispanic people (34%), and shares their values (32%) compared to the Republican Party (16%, 12%, and 17%, respectively).
   • That said, Latinos aren’t as keen on Biden himself. In an exercise where respondents indicate who does a better job on handling issues between Biden and Trump, Biden underperforms compared to the Democratic Party overall.
   • The net difference between Biden and Trump on several key statements is smaller than the difference between the Democratic and Republican Party. For example, while the Democratic Party has a 20-percentage point advantage over Republicans on the statement “represents people like me,” Biden only holds a 5-percentage point advantage over Trump. Older Latinos tend to prefer Biden over Trump in this area compared to younger Latinos.
   • When asked which party is good for the U.S. economy, Latinos are roughly split between the Republican Party (25%) and the Democratic Party (22%). In comparison, 26% of Latinos said the Republican Party is good for the U.S. economy and 19% said the same of the Democratic Party in June 2023.
   • When asked who is better for the U.S. economy, Latinos prefer Trump (42%) over Biden (20%). On crime and public safety, Trump (31%) also outperforms Biden (20%). On the other hand, Biden performs better on abortion issues (30% Biden, 21% Trump).
3. Latinos are somewhat mixed when it comes to immigration. While most support providing a path to U.S. citizenship for people in the U.S. illegally, a majority also thinks improving border security should be a priority for the U.S. government. A bare majority also agrees that they worry that if the government begins mass deportations of illegal immigrants, they may target all Latinos, including native and legal residents.
   • Roughly two in three Latinos say they support providing a path to U.S. citizenship for all people currently in the U.S. illegally (65%) and allowing refugees fleeing crime and violence in Latin American to claim asylum in the U.S. (59%). These levels are roughly unchanged since December 2021 (68%, 60% respectively).
   • That said, 64% support giving the president authority to shut U.S. borders if there are too many migrants trying to enter the country.
   • A minority supports building a wall or fence along the entire U.S.-Mexico border (42%) or sending all undocumented immigrants in the U.S. back to their country of origin (38%). Compared to December 2021, more Latinos support building a wall (30% in December 2021) and sending all undocumented immigrants back to their country of origin (28%).
   • Half of respondents (52%) say they agree that they worry that if the government starts mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, they will target all Latinos, including native and legal residents, not only the undocumented. These levels are highest among respondents who speak only Spanish (59%) as well as first generation respondents (57%).
   • A majority of Latinos say they think that improving border security (62%) and reforming the immigration system (70%) is important for the U.S. government to prioritize. Around one in four say that improving border security (24%) or reforming the immigration system (26%) should be the most important priority for the government.  
4. Latino Americans are less optimistic that they can live the “American Dream” – especially younger Latinos.
   • Just over half of Latinos say it’s a good time to be a Latino or Hispanic person in America, compared to 40% who say it’s a bad time, levels that are roughly unchanged since June 2023. However, compared to 2022, more Latinos say it’s a bad time to be a Latino or Hispanic person in the U.S. (31% October 2022, 29% June 2022).
   • Roughly half of respondents (53%) say they believe they can live the “American Dream,” levels that have dropped since March 2022 (61%). Younger Latinos aged 18-29 (37%) are far less likely to feel that they can live the “American Dream” than their older counterparts. First generation Latinos, on the other hand, are more likely to feel they can live the “American Dream” (59%) compared to second (46%) or third (48%) generation Latinos.
   • Less than half of Latinos say they are optimistic about the future of the U.S. (41%); levels that are also lowest among those aged 18-29 (32%).
   • Around half believe Latino or Hispanic people do not have the same opportunities as white people in the U.S. (53%).

About the Study

The Axios/Ipsos poll was conducted in partnership with Noticias Telemundo between March 22^nd – 28^th, 2024, by Ipsos, using our KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,012 Latino/Hispanic adults age 18 or older in the United States.

No respondents were removed from the final data for refusing all of the survey items.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs an addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. No prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. Two reminder emails were sent for this study.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, education, English language dominance, Latino/Hispanic origin, household income, Census region, metropolitan status, and 2020 vote choice. Demographic benchmarks, among Latino/Hispanic adults age 18+, came from the 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) with English language dominance from the 2022 American Community Survey (ACS). Benchmarks for the 2020 Presidential Vote choice among the US Latino/Hispanic population came from Census post-election survey and Pew 2021 validate voter survey. The weighting variables and categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Education (Less than High School grad, High School grad, Some College/Tech/Associate’s degree, Bachelor’s degree or higher)
• English Language Dominance (English proficient, Bilingual, Spanish proficient)
• Latino/Hispanic origin (Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, Central American, Other)
• Household Income (Under $50,000, $50,000-$99,999, $100,000+)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• 2020 Vote choice (Trump, Biden, Other/Did not vote)

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of Latino/Hispanic adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.36. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

Mallory Newall
Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 374-2613
[email protected]

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