House Lannister in Peril: Cersei and Jaime's Death Foreseen

Game of Thrones Predictions. Content warning: Spoilers ahead

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  • Chris Jackson Public Affairs, US
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Washington, DC, May 8, 2019 – The Great War is now over, but the fight over Westeros rages on. Before the campaign down south started, 12% of Game of Thrones fans correctly prophesied the shocking death of a second dragon; and another 4% correctly predicted the literal fall of Missandei. Their murders will certainly not go unanswered.

Game of Thrones fans are placing Lannister Lions in the danger of extinction list: There is a tie between Jaime and Cersei Lannister for who will be the next one to die in the series. Fans are losing confidence of the twins’ survival, as Jaime jumps by nine points from last week and Cersei by seven points to 21% each. Next on the list is Euron Greyjoy (19%) and Grey Worm (13%). Cersei continues to reap the fruit of her Machiavellian plotting to retain the Iron Throne; she is seen as a formidable opponent to her enemies Jon and Daenerys, who are thought to be in growing, yet equal danger: Jon jumps by six points and Daenerys by three to 10% each.

Tormund Giantsbane’s glowing endorsement of Jon Snow reflected well in this week’s poll, as Jon consolidates an impressive lead as the favorite to rule over Westeros. Last week, 31% of Game of Thrones fans though he would sit on the Iron Throne. After a rousing speech from the famous wildling raider of the true north in support of Jon Snow, 37% of fans think Jon is going to rule over the Seven Kingdoms, a six-point increase. Jon’s rise comes after Arya Stark decided to run away with the Hound to settle unfinished business in King’s Landing, and those who think Arya will rule over Westeros dropped by ten points to 5%. Those who think Daenerys will prevail in her efforts to rule the Seven Kingdoms remains low at 12%, constant from last week (13%).

Arya had her fifteen minutes of fame, and support for her to sit on the Iron Throne and rule over Westeros burned faster than wildfire: now, only 7% of fans think that she should be the person to run Westeros, a five-point decline. Thirty-nine percent of fans continue to believe that Jon Snow should be the ultimate protector of the realm, an increase of three points from last week. Daenerys Targaryen also experienced a 3 point increase, with 15% of fans thinking she should sit on the Iron Throne, reclaiming second place.

About the Study

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted between May 6-7, 2019. For the survey, a sample of 1,004 adults 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English. The sample includes 281 adults who watch Game of Thrones.

For the wave fielded after episode three, a sample of 1,005 adults 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English between April 29-30, 2019. The sample includes 278 adults who watch Game of Thrones.

For the wave fielded after episode two, a sample of 1,005 adults 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English. The sample includes 267 adults who watch Game of Thrones.

For the wave fielded after episode one, a sample of 1,005 adults 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English between April 15-15, 2019. The sample includes 303 adults who watch Game of Thrones.

For the pre-season wave, a sample of 1,006 adults 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English between April 4-5, 2019. The sample includes 298 adults who watch Game of Thrones.

The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2016 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,005, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.0 percentage points).

The poll also has a credibility interval plus or minus 6.7 percentage points for adults who watch Game of Thrones.

For more information about conducting research intended for public release or Ipsos’ online polling methodology, please visit our Public Opinion Polling and Communication page where you can download our brochure, see our public release protocol, or contact us.

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Public Affairs, US

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