The State Of Britain And Brexit
Presentation from Ipsos' "The state of Britain and Brexit" event on 8 June 2016. With speakers including Gaby Hinsliff, The Guardian, Tim Montgomerie, The Times and Vicky Pryce, CEBR.
Are any of these regulations / recommendations real?
- Bombay Mix has to be renamed Mumbai mix
- Barmaids cannot show too much cleavage
- Sausages to be renamed as emulsified high-fat offal tubes
- Water bottle cannot advertise that their contents prevent dehydration
“Will we or will we Stay Go?” Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos
The issues
- Remain and leave voters motivated by very different issues
- Many expect problems for economy in short term (but not own!)
Implicit Reaction Time (IRT) allows us to compare people’s stated opinions with the strength of their unconscious associations
- Both remain and leave voters are certain their option would be best for the economy
- Remain camp owns arguments on trade – leave voters say they think Brexit would be better for trade, but unconvincingly
- Voters on both sides unconvinced about impact on own standard of living
- Although both think their vote best for long-term, less sure about short-term – remain voters especially have a gap between explicit response and IRT score
So why don’t we ask someone else …?
- Captains of Industry - As you may know, the government has pledged to hold a referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union by 2017.
- Economists - If the United Kingdom votes to leave the European Union, what impact, if any, do you think it would have on the risk of the UK economy experiencing a serious negative shock in the next 5 years?
Betting markets are STILL 73% for in.
Pollsters, political scientists and journalists think Remain will win (55%-45%).
But they also give Brexit a 38% chance.
Public still expect Remain to win… Which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely to happen at the referendum in June?
