The State Of Britain And Brexit

Presentation from Ipsos' "The state of Britain and Brexit" event on 8 June 2016. With speakers including Gaby Hinsliff, The Guardian, Tim Montgomerie, The Times and Vicky Pryce, CEBR.

Are any of these regulations / recommendations real?

• Bombay Mix has to be renamed Mumbai mix
• Barmaids cannot show too much cleavage
• Sausages to be renamed as emulsified high-fat offal tubes
• Water bottle cannot advertise that their contents prevent dehydration

“Will we or will we Stay Go?” Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos

The issues

• Remain and leave voters motivated by very different issues
• Many expect problems for economy in short term (but not own!)

Implicit Reaction Time (IRT) allows us to compare people’s stated opinions with the strength of their unconscious associations

1.  Both remain and leave voters are certain their option would be best for the economy 
2. Remain camp owns arguments on trade – leave voters say they think Brexit would be better for trade, but unconvincingly
3. Voters on both sides unconvinced about impact on own standard of living
4. Although both think their vote best for long-term, less sure about short-term – remain voters especially have a gap between explicit response and IRT score

So why don’t we ask someone else …?

• Captains of Industry - As you may know, the government has pledged to hold a referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union by 2017.

• Economists - If the United Kingdom votes to leave the European Union, what impact, if any, do you think it would have on the risk of the UK economy experiencing a serious negative shock in the next 5 years?

Betting markets are STILL 73% for in.

Pollsters, political scientists and journalists think Remain will win (55%-45%).

But they also give Brexit a 38% chance.

Public still expect Remain to win… Which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely to happen at the referendum in June?