Australian Majority Support for Turnbull to Remain as Party Leader - Fairfax Ipsos Poll

The national poll of 1,166 respondents, interviewed from 3-5 April 2018, shows the Labor party on 52% (down one point since December 2017), with the Coalition on 48% (up one point since December), based on 2016 election preferences.

“This result indicates a 2.4% swing against the Coalition Government since the July 2016 Federal election,” Ipsos Director Jessica Elgood said.

“The two-party stated preference vote shows a dead heat with both parties on 50%. The Labor party is on 50%, down two points since December, and the Coalition on 50%, up two points since December.”

First preference votes put Labor on 34% (up one point since December) and the Coalition on 36% (up two points since December). The Greens have 12% (down 1 point since December), One Nation is on 8%, Nick Xenophon Team is on 2% and others are on 8%. Seven per cent of respondents are undecided. These are excluded from the two-party stated preference figures.

Key findings

• Leaders’ approval ratings: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is 47% (up five points since December), and disapproval at 43% (down six points since December). Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 38% (unchanged since December), and disapproval at 53% (up one point since December).
• Preferred Prime Minister: 52% prefer Malcolm Turnbull as the Prime Minister (up four points since December); 31% prefer Bill Shorten (unchanged since December).
• Changing leaders: 28% believe the Liberal party should change party leader; 62% support Malcolm Turnbull remaining as Liberal National Party leader.
• Company tax: Half the respondents (49%) support reducing company tax rates from 30% to 25% over the next decade; 40% are opposed.

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister

Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating has improved to 47% (up five points since December); his disapproval rating is 43% (down six points since December). This gives a positive net approval of +4 (up eleven points since December), his most positive approval rating since June 2016.

Bill Shorten’s approval rating is static at 38% (unchanged since December) and his disapproval rating is 53% (up one point since December). This gives a net approval of -15 (down one point since December).

Malcolm Turnbull remains the preferred Prime Minister, at 52%, up four points since December; while 31% favour Bill Shorten as Prime Minister (unchanged since December).

Changing leaders

Just over a quarter (28%) of Australians believe the Liberal party should change party leader, while three in five (62%) support Malcolm Turnbull remaining as LNP leader. This compares starkly with support for Tony Abbott in February 2013, when only 46% supported him remaining as party leader, and with Julia Gillard’s similar experience in 2012.

Among Coalition voters support for Turnbull is stronger, with 74% backing him to stay in the role as leader and only 21% preferring a change. Even among Labor voters, only 31% think there should be a change of leadership in the LNP.

Company tax

The public were asked to consider whether there should be a reduction of company tax rates from 30% to 25% over the next decade. Half (49%) support this proposed change, and 40% are opposed. This gives a positive balance of opinion of +9.

Support for this proposal has increased since last year, up five points.

The issue continues to divide strongly along party lines, with 71% of Coalition voters supporting the proposal, but the majority of both Labor voters (57%) and Green voters (56%) are opposed.

Poll Profile

Fieldwork dates: 3-5 April 2018.
Sample size: 1,166 respondents.
Sample: National, aged 18+, 30% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.
Method: Telephone, using random digit dialling.
Statistical reliability: ±2.9% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample.
Analysis: The data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution.