The Economic Pulse of the World - December 2014

Overriding the positive trend noted in the previous Economic Pulse report, the last month of 2014 closed on the negative note with all three economic assessment indicators down since last month and down two points since October 2014..

National economic assessment is down one point (39%) since last month, driven by declines among the major players from BRIC (China 71%, -7pts.; Russia 36%, -5pts), APAC (Australia 57%, -6pts.) and G8 (UK 39%, -6pts.). Local economic assessment is down one point as well, with only four countries experiencing improvement since last sounding (Egypt 35%, +9pts.; Romania 17%, +7pts.; Sweden 53%, +6pts.; Germany 55%, +3pts.). Future local assessment is also down one point, with most of the countries cautiously readjusting their economic outlook for 2015.

 

With oil prices forecasted to stay low for the foreseeable future, economic outlook for 2015 has to be revised, especially for nations that rely heavily on natural resources production such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Canada and the United States.

 

The contrast between the United States and Russia in terms of how each nation views their national economy is stark, especially given the US led sanctions against the Putin government for its support and involvement in the Crimea. The US economic confidence is on a tear—up 14 points (to 44%) in 2014 as its economic engine has kicked into gear. By comparison, the national economic confidence in Russia has plummeted 23 points (to 36%) from 59% in August, 2014.

 

The three amigo’s of Latin America surveyed each month (Brazil, Argentina and Mexico) have all clustered around the 20% confidence range—an especially stunning slide over the past two years for Brazil which was heralded as one of the new world economic engines not so long ago.

 

Europe is in a holding pattern (this snapshot taken before the recent terrorist attacks in France and related activities in Belgium) while Turkey is on a negative watch for next month.

 

India remains very strong (four months at 80+ percent) with China on a positive, if occasionally erratic, path back to strong economic sentiment—up eight points (to 71%) over the year.

 

Despite great unrest in the Middle East, Egyptian's continue to rise positively in the assessment of  their economy.

 

Global Average of National Economic Assessment Down One Point: 39%

Continuing on the downward trend started last month, the average global economic assessment of national economies surveyed in 24 countries is down one point as 39% of global citizens rate their national economies to be ‘good’ (and down from 41% since October 2014.)

 

Saudi Arabia (84%) remains at the top of the national economic assessment, followed by India (81%), Egypt (78%), Germany (75%), Sweden (74%) and China (71%). Countries where the national economic assessment is the lowest this month are Italy (7%), France (7%), Spain (9%), South Korea (12%), Hungary (15%) and Romania (16%).

 

Countries with the greatest improvements in this wave:  Egypt (78%, +13 pts.), Sweden (74%, +7 pts.), the United States (44%, +3 pts.), Hungary (15%, +2 pts.), Germany (75%, +1 pts.), Argentina (20%, +1pts.), South Korea (12%, +1pts.) and France (7%, +1pts.)

 

Countries with the greatest declines: China (71%, -7 pts.), Turkey (39%, -7 pts.), Australia (57%, -6 pts.), Great Britain (39%, -6 pts.), Russia (36%, -5pts), South Africa (23%, -3 pts.) and Mexico (20%, -3pts.).

National Economic Assessment - December 2014

 

Global Average of Local Economic Assessment (28%) Down One Point

When asked to assess their local economies, 28% agree the state of the current economy in their local area is ‘good,’ on the global aggregate level. The local economic assessment down one point since last sounding.

 

With the majority of countries experiencing a decline in the local area economic assessment, Saudi Arabia (61%) regains the lead, followed close behind by China (60%), Germany (55%), Sweden (53%), India (51%), Canada (41%), and Australia (38%). Fistful in Italy (8%) agree that the state of the current economy in their local area is ‘good’, followed by South Korea (9%), Spain (9%), France (10%), Japan (10%), Hungary (13%) and Belgium (14%).

 

Countries with the greatest improvements in this wave: Egypt (35%, +9 pts.), Romania (17%, +7 pts.), Sweden (53%, +6 pts.) and Germany (55%, +3pts.).

 

Countries with the greatest declines: Turkey (27%, -8 pts.), Belgium (14%, -8 pts.), Canada (41%, -6 pts.), Great Britain (28%, -5 pts.), Argentina (17%, -4 pts.), South Africa (15%, -4 pts.) and South Korea (9%, -4 pts.).

 

Global Average of Future Outlook for Local Economy (24%) Down One Point

The future outlook average loses one point, as one quarter (25%) of global citizens expect their local economy will be stronger six months from now.

 

India (71%) remains at the top spot in the future outlook assessment rating followed by Brazil (57%), Egypt (55%), Saudi Arabia (51%), China (46%), Mexico (30%) and Argentina (27%). The lowest-ranking countries this month are France (4%), Belgium (6%), Italy (8%), Hungary (9%), South Korea (9%), Japan (12%), and Germany (14%).

 

Countries with the greatest improvements in this wave: Egypt (55%, +9 pts.), Romania (26%, +3 pts.), Japan (12%, +2 pts.), Saudi Arabia (51%, +1 pts.), Russia (20%, +1 pts.) Canada (19%, +1 pts.) and Australia (18%, +1pts.).

 

Countries with the greatest declines: China (46%, -7 pts.), Argentina (27%, -7 pts.), India (65%, -6 pts.), Belgium (6%, -5 pts.), South Africa (16%, -4 pts.), Turkey (22%, -3pts.), Sweden (14%, -2pts.), Hungary (9%, -2pts.) and South Korea (9%, -2 pts.).

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