Exit Poll for the Dutch Referendum

For two consecutive weeks leading up to the Dutch referendum, Ipsos research was front and centre in the daily national news.

The discussion wasn’t so much about the content of the agreement, as it was about the turnout. Who was going to vote and who was not?

This referendum wasn’t just another election. A threshold on this turnout would decide whether the outcome of the referendum would be valid. Because of the threshold, publishing reliable turnout figures during the day could have actually influenced the outcome of the vote. Based on the data, people in favour of the trade agreement with Ukraine could decide to stay at home, in the hopes that the turnout threshold wouldn’t be met.

At 9 p.m., when the polling stations closed, the turnout figures were finally available.