Fairfax Ipsos Poll Quarterly Analysis - Labor Continues to Lead Coalition
In Australia, on a two party preferred basis, for the period July-September 2018, analysis by the Fairfax Ipsos Poll shows that Labor leads the Coalition by 48% to 52%.
“It’s interesting to note that a greater number of young people, aged from 18 to 39 support Labor on a two party preferred basis, and a larger number of older Australians aged over 55 support the Coalition. More women than men support Labor at 55% versus 50%, while more men support the Coalition at 50% versus 45%,” Ipsos Director, Jessica Elgood, said.
Primary vote
The Liberal National Coalition primary share of the vote is just ahead of the Labor Party at 35% versus 34% in the second quarter of 2018.
The other parties, including the Greens (13%), the Nick Xenophon Team (2%), One Nation (7%) and others (9%) have remained relatively steady in the latest quarter.
Support for the Coalition in the states and territories is mixed. It is highest in South Australia/Northern Territory and Western Australia at 38%, 36% in NSW and 34% in Victoria and Queensland.
Labor support has slightly fallen in the states and territories from the first quarter, with NSW, Victoria and Western Australia at 34%, Queensland at 33% and South Australia/Northern Territory at 32%.
Approval ratings
The Prime Minister’s approval rating has remained steady over the two quarters at 49% and his disapproval rating has shown a slight decline from 42% to 41% (note the July and August polls were conducted before Scott Morrison’s appointment).
South Australia/Northern Territory and Western Australia have the highest approval rating of the Prime Minister, at 52% and 51% respectively. Queensland has the highest disapproval rating at 43%.
The Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s approval rating has risen from 39% to 41% and his disapproval rating is steady at 52%. Shorten has the highest approval rating in Western Australia, at 46%. Again, Queensland has the highest disapproval rating, with Shorten at 54%.
Preferred Prime Minister
The preferred Prime Minister figures have fallen from the first to second quarters from 52% to 51% for Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison. Bill Shorten has also seen his figures rise from 32% to 34% over the same period.
