Populism or a Banana? The Rise of a New Political Agenda
At Ipsos, we are fundamentally asking two questions about our world today. One, are we seeing something significantly different when it comes to politics both domestically and globally? Put differently, have the drivers of politics changed? And second, what is going on? Many have called it populism, is that the case or is it something else (a banana)?
We argue that the world has entered a new political “supercycle”, where citizens are supporting political leaders who promise to upend broken institutions. The 2016 United States presidential election is a prime example of this development. Across party lines, a majority of Americans believe the “system is broken.” This sentiment connects to the Caudillo Syndrome, which explains how people can rally around strong leaders promising to bend the rules. Additionally, the United States has quickly become polarised around the “America First” credo. Republicans are widely reporting that they feel like strangers in their own country and they would rather employers prioritise hiring people of this country over immigrants. Over the last 20 years, this ideology has increasingly polarised Republicans and Democrats. The “America First” credo is driven by multiple factors, including increased anti-immigrant views, fear of others, and perceptions that we are worse off than our parents.
The belief that the “system is broken” stretches beyond the United States. That belief, coupled with nativism, largely explains why confidence in institutions such as the media and political parties is low throughout the world. Nearly two thirds of citizens across 22 countries believe traditional parties and politicians don’t care about people like them, with France, Mexico and Spain topping the list in agreement. Belief that the “system is broken” and nativism are not equally prevalent across countries. Latin American countries, including Mexico, Brazil and Peru, are low on nativism but are highly centered on “system is broken.” France, Hungary and Italy are driven by both nativist attitudes and “system is broken.”
Here at Ipsos, we define populism as a political strategy with three necessary conditions:
- the presence of a political entrepreneur willing to break the rules,
- a sense of insecurity among the people,
- the belief that the system is broken and the collective action against a scapegoat.
When these variables align, we often see populist change, such as the 2016 U.S. presidential election and Brexit.
