Turkish Referendum

Ipsos Public Affairs in Turkey conducted an exit poll the day after the constitutional referendum.

In order to clarify the reasons behind the voting decisions of Turkey during recent referendum on constitutional amendment package, Ipsos in Turkey’s Social Research Institute conducted an exit poll for CNN TURK TV Channel. The survey was conducted on 17 April 2016 (the day after the referendum) with CATI methodology in 81 cities.
Some of the insights featured in this survey are as follow;

  • “Yes” votes mainly came from 25 – 44 age, male, middle school or lower graduate voters while “No” votes mainly came from 18-24 and 45-64 age, educated and female voters
  • Majority of the young first time voters voted “No”
  • 90% of the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) voters said “Yes” in this referendum. Meanwhile, the very majority of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) voters said “No” (95% and 91% respectively)
  • Even though the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) announced earlier that they will vote for “Yes”, most of their voters voted as “No” in the referendum. (73%)
  • One of the two main issues which supported the “Yes” votes is the fact that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan supported this constitutional amendment. The other fact is that the “Yes” side’s using the explanation of “More Powerful Turkey” in all their communications.
  • Prominent in the minds of "No" voters: they do not support presidential system and one-person in charge. Also; republic, democracy, secularism and human rights are also major values which they consider in their “No” choices.
  • The polarisation between “Yes” and “No” voters was clearly seen in their evaluations about the referendum voting process. For example:
    • * 77% of the “Yes” voters think that the campaign period was fair for both sides.
    • * But 87% of “No” voters say that the campaign period was not passed fairly.
  • The deep disappointment of “No” voters has made way for one in four planning to move to another country. These people are particularly likely to be well educated younger people.