Theresa May’s Personal Ratings Fall as Labour Reduces Conservative Lead

Theresa May’s personal ratings fall as Labour reduces Conservative lead

CON 45; LAB 40; LIB DEM 7; UKIP 2

With less than a week to go until polling day Ipsos’s Political Monitor reveals the gap has closed between the Conservatives and Labour as the Conservatives maintain a 5-point lead. The survey has the Conservatives with 45%, Labour 40%, the Liberal Democrats 7% and UKIP 2%. (This poll now includes an adjustment to allow for potential overclaim in likelihood to vote - see methods note below).

Overall four in five (78%) voters say they have definitely decided who they will vote for next week while one in five (20%) may change their mind. There is little difference between potential Conservative and Labour voters with 75% and 76% respectively saying they have definitely decided who they’ll vote for (23% of Conservative voters and 21% of Labour voters may change their mind).

Theresa May still commands a lead over Jeremy Corbyn when it comes to who Britons think would be the most capable Prime Minister. Half (50%) think Ms May would be the most capable (down 6 points from two weeks ago) while one in three (35%) say Mr Corbyn (up 6 points). Younger voters prefer Mr Corbyn (by 57% to 30% among 18-34s), but older voters still choose Mrs May (by 67% to 18% among 55+).

Theresa May also leads Jeremy Corbyn when it comes to leadership satisfaction ratings however her numbers are much lower than seen in our last poll two weeks ago. Forty-three percent say they’re satisfied with Theresa May doing her job (down 12 points) while half (50%) say they’re dissatisfied with her (up 15 points) - leaving her a net satisfaction score of -7 (her first negative rating since becoming Prime Minister). This compares with two in five (39%) satisfied with Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader (up 8 points) and half (50%) dissatisfied with him (down 8 points) – giving him a net score of -11. Conservative voters still strongly back Theresa May with 82% saying they’re satisfied with how Theresa May is doing her job (14% are dissatisfied). Labour voters have become more enthusiastic for Jeremy Corbyn, with 71% saying they are satisfied in his performance and 19% dissatisfied.

Despite being well into the election campaign both Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron and UKIP leader Paul Nuttall are yet to make inroads with the public. A quarter (25%) are satisfied with the Liberal Democrat leader (down 3 points) while 44% are dissatisfied (up 5 points) – leaving him with a net score of -19, although three in ten (30%) say they have no opinion of Mr Farron. Paul Nuttall also struggles with low public satisfaction ratings where 18% say they’re satisfied with the UKIP leader’s performance (up 1 point) and more than half (55%) are dissatisfied (also up 1 point) – giving him a net score of -37 with 27% saying they have no opinion of him.

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, said:

Here’s more evidence of the Conservative’s wobbly week, with Labour improving again and the last two weeks of campaigning seeing a big hit to the Prime Minister’s personal ratings. But remember this is just a snapshot of a period of time, not a prediction – the Conservative vote share remains high, May is still seen as the most capable PM, and they still have the support of older people. Meanwhile, Labour’s support still relies a great deal on younger people, who in the past have proven less likely to vote.

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,046 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 30^th May – 1^st June 2017.