How to tell a myth from reality in UK generations

Q&A with Michael Clemence

26 April 2023

Why is it important to understand generations now?

In the UK, age is emerging as the biggest single divide in society – more significant than education, class, and gender in determining our choices. For instance, the one piece of information that gives you the biggest insight into how someone might vote is their age: roughly, anyone under 45 is likely to say they will vote for the more left-wing Labour party, while anyone over that age will likely say they would choose the more right-wing Conservative party.

In this context, understanding generations is the key to a lot of strategy. Will younger generations change to become more like older ones as they pass through different life stages, or will they remain fixed in their outlook?

Understanding generations also helps us to defuse the potential for intergenerational conflict. While there are differences between cohorts in politics and behaviour, generational thinking also reminds us that we are more similar than we think in our underlying values. The UK’s generations are more aligned on the type of society they want to live in than we might think, despite our differences on the method and means by which we get there.

Will younger generations change to become more like older ones as they pass through different life stages, or will they remain fixed in their outlook?

How has the pandemic affected different generations?

Ipsos | Generations | UK The Covid pandemic is a classic case study of what is called a “period effect” in generational analysis. This single event has had universal impacts across all walks of life, with the effects varying by the age and life stage of each person in the UK.

We polled the UK public on this question for our Generation Z report and found that the public were most likely to identify the Pre-War generation (those born in 1944 and earlier) as being most negatively affected by the pandemic, which makes sense when we think about those who were most likely to be killed by the virus.

They rated Generation Alpha (currently aged 10 and under) as being the least negatively affected, followed by Generation Z, who were in their teens and early 20s at the time. Again, this appears to be led by the much lower fatality rates among these age groups.

But there’s a big question mark over the long-term and second-order impacts that interrupted schooling and early careers might have had on these generations. If we look back on the question in five or 10 years’ time perhaps the answers would be different

Why is generational analysis helpful?

Generational analysis is helpful because it reminds us of the importance of the era in which we grew up on our experiences. When we consider age brackets like 18-24, or 55+, the assumption is that 18–24-year-olds now are the same as 18–24-year-olds 10 years ago. But this is not the case: the environment that we grow up in shapes what it means to be at different ages, at different times.

It also reminds us to differentiate between different drivers of change. When considering generations we need to think about three different forces: there are period effects, where people of all ages are affected by the same event or circumstance (for instance, Covid); there are also life stage effects, where our views change as we age and cross different milestones such as buying a house, having children, or retirement; and there are also cohort effects, where generations have different views and these stay different as they age.

Disentangling these three effects is good for our analysis – it helps us to question our assumptions and dig a little deeper into the correlations we see in data. When done well it also lets us identify true cohort effects, which shine a light on the types of attitudes and behaviours that will become more common in the future through generational replacement.

What was the most surprising finding of your research into generations?

Some of the most surprising findings came when we examined cohort self-awareness. Generational terms are reasonably well known in the UK, so we were able to ask people of different ages about which cohort they thought they fitted into, and how strongly they identified with the label.

We found that the generation with the strongest self-awareness was in fact the Baby Boomer generation, those born between 1945 and 1965. While almost two-thirds of this cohort were able to place themselves within their generation, this figure was under half for all other generations. Generation Z were the least able to place themselves in their generational box with just over a third managing to do so.

Yet when we looked at strength of identity, the picture was reversed. This suggests that the Baby Boomer identity in the UK is widespread but lightly held, while for Millennials and Gen Z a smaller number of people identify more strongly with their cohort.

The generation with the strongest self-awareness was in fact the Baby Boomer generation, those born between 1945 and 1965. While almost two-thirds of this cohort were able to place themselves within their generation, this figure was under half for all other generations.

How do Gen Z compare to Millennials?

Ipsos | Generations | UK There are a lot of areas where Generation Z and Millennials are very similar! As I mentioned earlier, politically their choices are very similar, although the older Millennials are more likely to vote. Gen Z political values are also similar, although we do see signs of a more liberal outlook on benefits and redistribution. But we also need to remember that the whole of UK society is becoming more liberal too, so Gen Z are the crest of the wave rather than going against the current.

We see more differences in their financial outlook. Despite facing similar economic obstacles, Gen Z are more optimistic about their finances than Millennials were at a similar age and our data also suggests they are more likely to have savings. Due to policy changes they are also much more likely to be saving for pensions, which is a positive for the future.

One important area where we see relatively little difference is on climate change. It is suggested that Gen Z are an activist generation who are motivated by saving the planet more than previous cohorts, but this assertion is hard to sustain with data. We’ve found that all generations are more concerned now than in the past, and if anything, Gen Z are more polarised between an activist core and a disengaged group. Our hypothesis is that Gen Z might be more in favour of making significant lifestyle changes to help, but as yet we don’t have data to back this up.

There is a whole industry built around provoking generational outrage which tends to be premised on misreading data about young people, especially when it comes to attitudes to work and politics.

What is your one piece of advice to learn more about people across generations?

Almost anything you are considering is probably an age- or life stage-based driver, rather than a true generational difference. There is a whole industry built around provoking generational outrage which tends to be premised on misreading data about young people, especially when it comes to attitudes to work and politics.

Over the past decade the amount of data available has exploded. That makes generational analysis much more possible, in a wider range of areas. But the paucity of data on older generations when they were a similar age means we lack additional points to make a like-for-like comparison.

Whenever you are confronted by these sort of headlines (“Gen Z are entitled”, “Millennials are killing the napkin industry”) it is probably safe to assume it is wrong. Remember to ask yourself “Is this unique about this new generation, or simply a reflection of the fact that they are young?”

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